Carbon tax or carbon permits: the impact on generators’ risks
نویسنده
چکیده
generators’ risks Richard Green Institute for Energy Research and Policy University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT Tel: +44 121 415 8216 Email: [email protected] October 2007 Abstract Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalized market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with costs that are not correlated with price, even if those costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators’ profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted. JEL: L94
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